Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.006592 0.007416 0.008306 0.009339 0.010504 0.011780 0.013283
2026-02-08 0.005273 0.006407 0.007731 0.009392 0.011425 0.013835 0.016917
2026-02-15 0.004464 0.005719 0.007266 0.009315 0.011967 0.015292 0.019793
2026-02-22 0.004003 0.005356 0.007097 0.009510 0.012780 0.017074 0.023169
2026-03-01 0.003470 0.004817 0.006617 0.009209 0.012862 0.017852 0.025234
2026-03-08 0.003084 0.004424 0.006275 0.009034 0.013062 0.018765 0.027516
2026-03-15 0.002746 0.004057 0.005925 0.008796 0.013125 0.019457 0.029506
2026-03-22 0.002607 0.003962 0.005948 0.009092 0.013980 0.021354 0.033438
2026-03-29 0.002457 0.003833 0.005904 0.009273 0.014663 0.023032 0.037166
2026-04-05 0.002330 0.003724 0.005878 0.009472 0.015381 0.024809 0.041194
2026-04-12 0.002151 0.003518 0.005679 0.009373 0.015600 0.025793 0.043988
2026-04-19 0.002008 0.003356 0.005535 0.009347 0.015930 0.026972 0.047197
2026-04-26 0.001851 0.003160 0.005324 0.009197 0.016046 0.027819 0.049939
2026-05-03 0.001745 0.003043 0.005235 0.009248 0.016515 0.029310 0.053969
2026-05-10 0.001627 0.002896 0.005083 0.009172 0.016745 0.030390 0.057329
2026-05-17 0.001564 0.002839 0.005081 0.009364 0.017475 0.032425 0.062660
2026-05-24 0.001433 0.002648 0.004826 0.009067 0.017265 0.032695 0.064598
2026-05-31 0.001331 0.002504 0.004645 0.008895 0.017275 0.033371 0.067385
2026-06-07 0.001231 0.002355 0.004442 0.008661 0.017142 0.033757 0.069608
2026-06-14 0.001205 0.002347 0.004506 0.008953 0.018072 0.036310 0.076534
2026-06-21 0.001167 0.002311 0.004512 0.009131 0.018784 0.038477 0.082836
2026-06-28 0.001133 0.002281 0.004528 0.009327 0.019549 0.040810 0.089700
2026-07-05 0.001070 0.002186 0.004407 0.009229 0.019684 0.041827 0.093748